Our Probable Qualitative Future
US Oil Production Over time
The US is rapidly running out of production capacity.
The Same is true for combined North American Production.
What about the whole World?
Known US Reserves as of 1990: = 36 billion barrels of oil
36/3 12 more years left
By 1995 the Reserve Estimate had dwindled to 22.5 billion
22.5/3 = 7.5 years left so we are still on the trajectory
Oil Imports 1973-1997
This is equivalent to about 300 TerraWatts of Power
over the course of a year
Renewables make up about 5-7% of this total
(most all that is hydro)
As exponential population increases and the LDC seeks the
Nominal World Population Clock
With that escalating demand also will come escalating pollution and likely an excarbation of global warming.
But Concensus is Emerging
The Peak will likely occur around 2005 +/- 1 year
Then decline to 10% of that peak within 50 years.
(but it could easily be more rapid).
But it continues to be "cheap"