US Oil Production Over time

The US is rapidly running out of production capacity.

- He assumed that the intrinstic production curve was bell
shaped. He arrived at this assumption by examining the production
curve of individual oil wells ,which was bell shaped. He assumed
that integrated production would show the same functional behavior.
- He made an estimate of the total oil reserves available in the
US. We will call this R. The total area under the bell curve is
R. (As we saw in class with the Excel exponential depletion time
scale calculations that even if your wrong by a factor of 2 in this
estimate, it doesn't make much difference)
- Empirical data from 1946-1955 firmly showed that the growth rate
of oil consumption was around 3%.
Therefore, if you know the total amount of the reserve, R, you can then know what fraction of R was used up during the 1946-1955 period. Only one unique bell curve can simultaneously give you a total area of R and the correct fractional amount of R used up during this 10 year period.

The Same is true for combined North American Production.

What about the whole World?

Capacity in US Oil Reserve:Known US Reserves as of 1990: = 36 billion barrels of oil

Consumption Rate 3 billion barrels of oil per year36/3 12 more years left

By 1995 the Reserve Estimate had dwindled to 22.5 billion

barrels of oil and the cosumption rate remains the same22.5/3 = 7.5 years left so we are still on the trajectory

Which all means that our reliance on Foreign Oil

increases with time.Oil Imports 1973-1997

As exponential population increases and the LDC seeks the

same per capita energy structure as the MCD

demand should escalate

## Nominal World Population Clock

The Year of Peak Oil Production Continues to be

a Lively Scholary DebateBut Concensus is Emerging

The Peak will likely occur around 2005 +/- 1 year

Then decline to 10% of that peak within 50 years.

(but it could easily be more rapid).

The Price of OilBut it continues to be "cheap"