Simplest Prediction is increase in global mean temperature. Can We see evidence for this in the Data?

This is best seen by doing a geographic analysis of tempearture trends:

More on this:

Animated Sequence for Winter Months

Now try and convince congress!

Distribution of Responsibilities:

The Importance of Methane:

Current concentration of CO₂ is 360 ppm

Current concentration of CH₄ is 1.8 ppm or 25x1.8 = 45 ppm CO₂ equivalent. This is 12% of CO₂ concentration and its growing 2.5 times as fast.

Methane Removal Mechanism (some estimates suggest the methane residence time is up to 12 years so there is no short term equilibrium control):

Atmospheric Chemistry:

CH₄ + 2O₂ CO₂ + 2H₂0

OH + CH4 + 02 H2O + CH3O2

CH3O2 + NO +02 H2CO + HO2 + NO2

CH3O2 + HO2 CH3OOH + O2

H2CO + uv H2 + CO

CH3OOH +OH H2O + CH3O2a

A major concern, a positive feedback loop:

Note, however, that "catastrophic" release of CH₄ during period of Ice Ages may be the natural way that the Earth accelerates from a glacial period:

Known Hydrate deposits. Found typically in continental shelf where marine organisms (microbes) actively feed on carbon and carbon related productes to produce methane in the sediments.

Good overview of the hydrate "problem"

Modeling the Climate System:

The climate system is complicated with all kinds of couplings:

In addition, the role of increasing clouds is crucial Net Cooling or Warming? There is general consensus that cloud cover will increase as the capacity for the atmosphere to retain water increases with increasing temperature. Cooling vs warming depends critically on cloud droplet size and location in the atmosphere. Increasing high, cold clouds increases reflectivity and may lead to cooling. Increasing low, warm clouds, increases precipiation and heat retention.

What do the most reliable (?) models show? slices.

Here is the equivalent data for the oceans

Comprehensive source for more climate models