Intelligent Life in the Universe


Is there Intelligent Life in the Universe?


A Statistical Estimate for the How Many Are Out there

We can write down a statistical equation to estimate the number of civilizations which currently exist in our Galaxy .

This equation has three parts:

Remember, we seem to be part of this Process Our choice now is which divergent path do we choose? - the long term one or the short term one?

So, here is the equation:

So what should the estimates be? In class we arrived at a bunch of different numbers.

Remember, that if you want the final answer to be 1 then you have to identify which term is unique (that is, it only happened here). Here are my estimates which are then explained below:

Why one million is a small number

  • What is the Moral: Life, All Life is Rare whether its yours, your neighbors or your neighbors pet slug.

  • Yes but what about colonization? The argument why N must be one:

    Implications of the above argument:

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