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Is there
Intelligent Life in the Universe?

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Another Classroom Exercise

# A Statistical Estimate for the How Many Are Out there

We can write down a statistical equation to estimate the
number of civilizations which currently exist in our Galaxy .

This equation has three parts:

- An astronomical part which basically predicts the number
of planets that exist in the galaxy which have a liquid surface
- A biological part which basically estimates the probability
that intelligent life will evolve on those planets which have a liquid
surface
- A socio-economic part which determines the survivability of the
civilization on that planet

Remember, we seem to be part of this Process
Our choice now is which divergent path do we choose? - the long term one
or the short term one?

So, here is the equation:

- The Astronomical part is the first three terms
- The Biological part is the next two
- The socio-economic part are the final two terms

- The uncertainty associated with each term grows as you move
down the right hand side of the equation

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The Electronic Universe Project
e-mail: nuts@moo.uoregon.edu